Nigeria’s agricultural trade balance moved from a N740.27 billion surplus in the first half of 2025 to a N56.13 billion deficit in H1 2026, according to an analysis by Nairametrics of the National Bureau of Statistics’ Q1 and Q2 2026 Foreign Trade Statistics.
The reversal reflected a sharper fall in export earnings than in imports, Nairametrics reported. Agricultural exports declined to N1.98 trillion in H1 2026 from N2.96 trillion in the same period of 2025, a year on year drop of 33.3 percent. Agricultural imports fell by a smaller 8.5 percent, from N2.22 trillion to N2.03 trillion over the same interval, the analysis showed (Nairametrics).
Quarter two drives the turnaround
Nairametrics said the second quarter produced the bulk of the deterioration. Exports for Q2 2026 were reported at N802.99 billion, down from N1.26 trillion in Q2 2025. Imports in Q2 2026 rose to N1.20 trillion from N1.18 trillion a year earlier. The Q2 figures resulted in a N400.78 billion deficit, reversing a Q2 2025 surplus of about N71.94 billion.
The Q2 deficit more than offset a first quarter surplus of N344.65 billion in 2026, when exports were recorded at N1.17 trillion against imports of N827.72 billion, Nairametrics said (Nairametrics).
Commodities still contribute, but earnings fell
Despite the overall decline, several agricultural commodities continued to record substantial export values in Q2 2026. Nairametrics listed the top contributors as standard quality cocoa beans at N154.31 billion, sesame seeds at N96.03 billion and superior quality cocoa beans at N58.82 billion. Other notable values were soya beans excluding seeds at N50.22 billion, soya bean flours and meals at N36.41 billion, cut flowers and flower buds at N31.43 billion, natural cocoa butter at N27.60 billion and crude shea oil at N12.66 billion (Nairametrics).
Employment and the wider challenge
The analysis also drew on NBS labour data to note that agriculture, forestry and fishing employed 25.34 million people in 2023, accounting for 30.1 percent of Nigeria’s workforce. That made agriculture the largest employment source in the data series, ahead of wholesale and retail trade, which had 23.13 million workers or 27.5 percent of the workforce, Nairametrics reported (Nairametrics).
The figures point to the difficulty of converting Nigeria’s large agricultural production and employment base into steady export earnings and a sustainable agricultural trade surplus, the analysis concluded (Nairametrics).
Featured image: Jummy001 via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.
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